Retail Coach Insights

Thanksgiving Weekend Is No Longer the Starting Line

Thanksgiving weekend used to mark the official kickoff of holiday retail. But in 2025, the season has already been underway for weeks by the time shoppers line up for Black Friday deals. Thanksgiving is no longer the starting signal—it’s the mid-season diagnostic. This post breaks down how the shift toward earlier promotions, extended demand curves, value-tier gifting, and evolving consumer emotion has transformed Thanksgiving from a conversion event into a strategic checkpoint. Retailers will learn which signals matter more than sales—the deal-to-full-price ratio, the strength of value-tier gifting, and early return intent—and how these cues shape margin, pricing strategy, and demand health heading into December. For leaders navigating a compressed, volatile holiday cycle, this piece reframes Thanksgiving as the moment to recalibrate, not launch.